By Florencia Ortúzar Greene and Karla Maass*

Against a backdrop of growing political fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and weakening international cooperation, the 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31)—to be held November 9–20, 2026, in Antalya, Turkey—represents an opportunity to strengthen multilateralism and collectively advance toward structural transformations based on justice, human rights, and the protection of ecosystems.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the context surrounding COP31 is characterized by the expansion of extractivism, the weakening of environmental institutions, and growing risks related to control over natural resources. Socio-environmental conflicts and threats to environmental defenders add to this. At the same time, dependence on fossil fuels continues to expose countries to geopolitical tensions, energy-market volatility, and risks to their economies and the security of their populations.

Given this situation, COP31 must help rebuild trust in multilateralism through decisions that can accelerate climate action, overcome barriers to its implementation, and address the needs of countries in the Global South.

At AIDA, we have identified four key processes for moving in this direction.

Check Out Our Proposals.

1. Implementing a just transition mechanism

One of the main challenges at COP31 will be defining how to implement the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM), agreed upon at COP30. Its transformative potential will depend on whether it moves beyond dialogue forums and, therefore, establishes inclusive multi-stakeholder governance focused on overcoming the structural inequalities that shape the transition, especially in the Global South.

AIDA proposes:

• Governance: Ensuring the effective representation of rights holders in the mechanism’s governance bodies and technical forums. This should be achieved through a system modeled on the public representation provisions of the Escazú Agreement, ensuring the formal and ongoing participation of representatives from each stakeholder group recognized in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• Working methods: Establishing an ongoing process for collecting, organizing, and analyzing information that allows for the incorporation of the best available scientific evidence and the results of other international processes to guide the mechanism’s priorities and actions. We also propose coordinating with the Standing Committee on Finance to include a specific analysis of the resources allocated to a just transition in the first biennial monitoring report on the new quantified collective goal (NCQG) for climate finance, scheduled for 2028.
• Functions: Promoting a just energy transition that accelerates the phase-out of fossil fuels through exploitation-free zones—conceived as territories for life—and strengthening renewable and community-based energy alternatives. We also propose establishing socio-environmental safeguards for the extraction of “critical” minerals, based on human rights, ecosystem integrity, and strict criteria of necessity, traceability, and responsible use, to prevent the energy transition from reproducing new forms of extractivism.

2. Moving from funding promises to concrete actions

Climate finance remains a major point of contention in international negotiations. COP31 must make progress on implementing the Work Program on Climate Finance, placing developed countries' obligations to provide resources to developing countries at the center, in accordance with Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement.

AIDA proposes:

• Scope: Ensure the program contributes to implementing the NCQG, particularly the target of at least $300 billion annually by 2035, through a roadmap that strengthens public financing by developed countries. Furthermore, we consider it essential to establish a specific mandate to assess the projected public financing needed to meet this target, drawing on the communications and processes established under Article 9.5 of the Paris Agreement, and to formulate recommendations and concrete measures for COP32.
• Working methods: Promoting innovative spaces for technical and political exchange that go beyond traditional dialogues and help identify solutions to structural barriers such as indebtedness, the high cost of capital, and difficulties in direct access to financing for indigenous peoples and local communities. We also propose strengthening coordination with the Diálogo de Veredas to build on its findings on reorienting international financial flows, without replacing developed countries' funding obligations.

3. A Global Stocktake to identify necessary changes

COP31 will mark the start of the second Global Stocktake (GST2) under the Paris Agreement. This process will assess collective progress on climate action and help guide international decisions in the coming years.

AIDA proposes:

• Establishing specific measures to facilitate the collection and systematization of information from traditionally underrepresented stakeholders, particularly indigenous peoples and local communities, and providing the support needed to ensure their knowledge, experiences, and territorial solutions contribute to a more representative assessment.
• Establishing an open and inclusive feedback mechanism for the summary reports resulting from the information-gathering phase. This mechanism should allow for the submission of comments, the identification of information gaps, and an understanding of how the contributions received are incorporated.
• Ensuring that GST2 is grounded in the best available science, including the timely incorporation of the findings of the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), and uses the commitments from the first Global Stocktake as a starting point for assessing their implementation, ensuring that climate justice, human rights, and ecosystem integrity are cross-cutting themes.

4. Accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels

Nearly three years after the commitment made at COP28 in Dubai, its implementation continues to face significant obstacles, while plans to expand fossil fuel production persist. COP31 represents an opportunity to break this deadlock and build on international initiatives aimed at accelerating a just, orderly, and equitable transition.

To this end, explicit political support from the COP31 presidencies for the roadmap promoted by the Brazilian presidency of COP30 and for the process launched at the First International Conference on the Transition Beyond Fossil Fuels (Santa Marta) will be key, thereby strengthening their recognition and relevance on the international climate agenda.

AIDA proposes:

• Formalizing and ensuring the institutional continuity of the Brazilian roadmap by incorporating it into the Antalya Political Package, and incorporating the results of both processes into the second Global Stocktake (GST2) to assess progress and gaps in implementing the commitment to phase out fossil fuels.
• We emphasize the need for the 35x35 electrification commitment to contribute effectively to reducing dependence on fossil fuels by promoting renewable energy, decentralized systems, and democratic, community-based governance models, with socio-environmental safeguards and an equitable distribution of benefits.

Check Out Our Proposals.

A COP31 focused on climate justice

The climate crisis demands much more than new commitments. It requires transforming development models, international economic relations, and the cooperation and financing mechanisms that determine the actual scope for action by countries and their territories.

COP31 offers an opportunity to move in that direction. Its significance will depend on governments' ability to make concrete decisions, strengthen international cooperation, and ensure that the necessary transformations are carried out with the effective participation of those who inhabit, defend, and protect these territories.

In our proposals for COP31, we make specific recommendations for the four negotiation processes to contribute to climate action that is more ambitious, equitable, and centered on human rights and ecosystem integrity.

Check Out Our Proposals.
 

*Florencia Ortúzar Greene is the director of AIDA's Climate Program, and Karla Maass is an external consultant for the organization.